Sunday, January 22, 2006

Canadian Federal Election Predictions

2004 Federl Election Results:
Liberals: 135
Conservatives: 99

155 seats needed to form a majority.

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It's interesting to see how the Conservatives and Liberals' fluctuations have mirrored each other in the opposite direction.

The various projection models are clicking in. Click the blue for links to each site.
(by New Winnipeg Forums member Hollywood.) - a blogger with links to every poll out there

Conservative 156
Bloc Quebecois 61
Liberal 49
NDP 41
Other 1

Pinnacle Sports - gamblers over-under

Conservative 146.5
Liberal 73.5
Bloc Quebecois 57.5
NDP 30.5

Ipsos the pollsters

Conservatives 143-147
Liberals 59-63
Bloc Quebecois 59-63
NDP 39-43 - lots of graphs

Conservatives 142
Liberals 76
Bloc Quebecois 57
NDP 32
Other 1

LISPOP i.e. Laurier University

Conservatives 138
Liberals 82
Bloc Quebecois 56
NDP 31
Other 1

Loblaws - average of predictions from "man in the street"

Conservatives 136
Liberals 90
Bloc Quebecois 57
NDP 25

UBC Election Stock Market - purchase your prediction

Conservatives 128
Liberals 92
Bloc Quebecois 55
NDP 32 - a really good blog with riding-by-riding reports

Conservatives 128
Liberals 94
Bloc Quebecois 57
NDP 28
Other 1

Triniman's prediction for 2006 as of January 20.
Conservatives: 126
Liberal: 104
NDP: 30
Bloc: 48

In light of these new predictions, I may be underestimating the number of seats the Conservatives and Bloc will win and overestimating the number the Liberals will win. I am cautious about predicting that the Liberals wiil lose many more seats since in the last election, the Liberals were behind near the end, but still pulled out a minority victory, largely due to Ontario voters.

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